Tropical Storm Epsilon Graphics

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 20 Oct 2020 02:41:48 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 20 Oct 2020 03:25:00 GMT

Posted on 19 October 2020 | 9:41 pm

Tropical Storm Epsilon Forecast Discussion Number 4

Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Oct 19 2020

000
WTNT42 KNHC 200239
TCDAT2
 
Tropical Storm Epsilon Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL272020
1100 PM AST Mon Oct 19 2020
 
Water vapor imagery indicates that Epsilon has been interacting with 
a shear line/dissipating cold front from the north and with a 
negatively tilted upper-level trough from the south. Furthermore, a 
pronounced dry slot has developed in the eastern semicircle, which 
has severed the convective band that had been wrapping about 
three-fourths of the way around the circulation. Overall, the cloud 
pattern more closely resembles that of an occluded extratropical 
low, with a small inner-core tropical feature. A 20/0025Z ASCAT-A 
pass indicated a small fetch of mostly straight-flow 40-kt winds 
located 60-90 nmi northeast of the well-defined surface center. 
Given the distance from the low-level center and lack of any 
significant curvature to those winds, undersampling is probably not 
occurring. Therefore, the initial intensity is being held at 40 kt 
for this advisory, which is consistent with satellite 
classifications of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT, and 
a 19/2202Z SATCON estimate of 42 kt. Epsilon is a large cyclone with 
gale-force or tropical-storm-force winds extending outward more than 
250 nmi in the northern semicircle.
 
The initial motion estimate is 360/02 kt. No significant changes 
were made to the previous track forecast or reasoning. Epsilon is 
expected to meander within weak steering currents well to the 
southeast of Bermuda for the next 12 h or so. By late Tuesday, a 
ridge is forecast to build to the north and east of the cyclone, 
forcing Epsilon generally toward the northwest through Friday. As an 
upper-level trough and associated frontal system approach the 
cyclone, Epsilon is expected to turn sharply northeastward between 
the trough and the ridge by late Friday, and accelerate 
northeastward thereafter over over the north Atlantic. The latest 
NHC model guidance is coming into better agreement, with a tight 
clustering of he various consensus models lying essentially along 
the previous advisory track. On the forecast track, Epsilon should 
make its closest approach to Bermuda on Friday.

Epsilon is forecast to remain over sea-surface temperatures (SST) of 
at least 27C the next 36 h or so and, when coupled with 200-mb 
temperatures of -55C, sufficient instability will exist to continue 
to allow for deep convection to be generated both in the inner- and 
outer-core regions of the cyclone. Thus, gradual strengthening is 
forecast during that time. However, by 48 h and continuing through 
72 h, SSTs cool to near 26.5C and the depth of the relatively warm 
water becomes quite shallow, as indciated by upper-ocean heat 
content values dropping to near zero by 72 h. The large and 
expansive wind field should result in cold upwelling both ahead of 
and beneath the inner-core wind field, which is likely to temper the 
intensification process. This may be reflected in the past couple of 
HRWF runs which no longer make Epsilon a hurricane by the time the 
cyclone approaches Bermuda on Friday. For now, the intensity 
forecast has only been lowered slightly since there may be some 
baroclinic interaction with an approaching upper-level trough that 
could offset the cooler waters. Epsilon could be undergoing 
extratropical transition by the 120-h forecast period, but for now 
the system will be shown as still being tropical since it will be 
located over marginal SSTs near 26C at that time.

Key Message:
 
1. Epsilon is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when
it approaches Bermuda late this week.  While it is too soon to
determine the exact details of Epsilon's track and intensity near
the island, there is a risk of direct impacts from wind, rainfall,
and storm surge on Bermuda, and interests there should closely
monitor the progress of Epsilon.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/0300Z 25.3N  55.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  20/1200Z 26.1N  55.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  21/0000Z 27.5N  56.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  21/1200Z 28.3N  58.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  22/0000Z 29.1N  59.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  22/1200Z 30.4N  60.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  23/0000Z 31.3N  61.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  24/0000Z 32.9N  62.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  25/0000Z 36.4N  60.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Stewart
 

Posted on 19 October 2020 | 9:39 pm

Tropical Storm Epsilon Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 20 2020

000
FONT12 KNHC 200239
PWSAT2
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM EPSILON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4          
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL272020               
0300 UTC TUE OCT 20 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  21(24)  23(47)   6(53)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  12(17)   5(22)
BERMUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   2(10)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  

Posted on 19 October 2020 | 9:39 pm

Summary for Tropical Storm Epsilon (AT2/AL272020)

...EPSILON MEANDERING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA... As of 11:00 PM AST Mon Oct 19 the center of Epsilon was located near 25.3, -55.3 with movement N at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Posted on 19 October 2020 | 9:39 pm

Tropical Storm Epsilon Public Advisory Number 4

Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Oct 19 2020

000
WTNT32 KNHC 200239
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Epsilon Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL272020
1100 PM AST Mon Oct 19 2020
 
...EPSILON MEANDERING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WELL TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.3N 55.3W
ABOUT 750 MI...1210 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warning in effect.
 
Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Epsilon.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Epsilon was 
located near latitude 25.3 North, longitude 55.3 West.  Epsilon is 
drifting toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h), and this general 
motion should continue tonight and early Tuesday.  A northwestward 
motion is expected to begin by Tuesday afternoon and continue 
through midweek.  On the forecast track, Epsilon is forecast to 
approach Bermuda on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher 
gusts.  Gradual strengthening is expected during the next couple of 
days, and Epsilon is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength by
Wednesday night.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Large swells generated by Epsilon are expected to affect
Bermuda for the next several days.  These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Stewart
 

Posted on 19 October 2020 | 9:39 pm

Tropical Storm Epsilon Forecast Advisory Number 4

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 20 2020

000
WTNT22 KNHC 200239
TCMAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL272020
0300 UTC TUE OCT 20 2020
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNING IN EFFECT.
 
INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EPSILON.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N  55.3W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   2 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......240NE  60SE    0SW  240NW.
12 FT SEAS..600NE  60SE  240SW  480NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N  55.3W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.2N  55.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 26.1N  55.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...250NE  90SE   0SW 240NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 27.5N  56.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
34 KT...270NE 100SE  40SW 240NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 28.3N  58.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  30SE   0SW  60NW.
34 KT...270NE 110SE  60SW 240NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 29.1N  59.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  50SE  20SW  70NW.
34 KT...210NE 100SE  80SW 210NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 30.4N  60.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  60SE  30SW  70NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE  90SW 180NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 31.3N  61.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  50SE  30SW  60NW.
34 KT...180NE 130SE 100SW 150NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 32.9N  62.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 36.4N  60.3W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.3N  55.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 

Posted on 19 October 2020 | 9:39 pm

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 192325
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Oct 19 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Epsilon, located over the central Atlantic several
hundred miles southeast of Bermuda.

A trough of low pressure extends southeastward across the
northwestern Caribbean Sea to a broad low pressure system located
over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Associated shower and
thunderstorm activity remains disorganized and is primarily located
over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. This large disturbance is
expected to consolidate over the northwestern Caribbean Sea during
the next day or so before move drifting westward toward the Yucatan
peninsula by Wednesday. Regardless of development, the system could
bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of central and western
Cuba, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Yucatan peninsula through
midweek.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Epsilon are issued under WMO
header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Epsilon are issued under WMO
header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Posted on 19 October 2020 | 6:25 pm