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Average Weather for Eleuthera Bahamas

Month Mean Daily Maximum Temperature F° Mean Daily Minimum Temperature F° Monthly Rainfall Inches Number of Rain Days
January76653.46
February79683.24
March80662.23
April8269.963
May86734.05
June86761.22
July89793.04
August90785.57
September89741.34
October88754.36
November83735.48
December80683.17

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Weather Underground PWS IELEUTHE4

Currently: Thunderstorms: 82F
Currently in Governor's Harbour, BS: 82 °F and Thunderstorms

9/26/2021 Forecast
High: 84 F Low: 79 F A shower and thunderstorm

9/27/2021 Forecast
High: 85 F Low: 79 F Clouds and sun with a shower

Current Weather for Governor's Harbour & Nearby Places

Governor's Harbour Accuweather 25 Day Forecast

Intellicast Atlantic Weather Radar Map - Hi Res Loop

Intellicast Caribbean Weather Radar Map - Hi Res Loop

Melbourne Florida Radar Map

Real Time GOES Imagery - Definitive Weather Satellite Views of the Bahamas and Caribbean:

GOES-East - Regional sector view: Caribbean

GOES-East Image Viewer

NASA's Hurricane Resource Page

Sea Surface Temperatures (expressed in Celcius degrees)

Space, Science & Engineering's Interactive Geostationary Real Time Satellite Images

NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

Hurricane Sam Graphics

Hurricane Sam 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 26 Sep 2021 14:48:00 GMT

Hurricane Sam 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 26 Sep 2021 15:22:47 GMT

Posted on 26 September 2021 | 9:48 am

Hurricane Sam Forecast Discussion Number 16

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 26 2021


000
WTNT43 KNHC 261445
TCDAT3
 
Hurricane Sam Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182021
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 26 2021

The satellite presentation of Hurricane Sam has been quite steady
over the past 6 hours.  Sam continues to have a well-defined, 12 n 
mi wide eye on visible and infrared satellite imagery this morning, 
with cloud tops colder than -70C completely surrounding the center. 
The latest subjective satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and 
SAB were both T-6.5/127 kt, while the objective estimate from ADT is 
near 122 kt. Based on these data, there is no reason to change the 
125-kt initial intensity at this time, especially given that a NOAA 
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled for a late afternoon/early 
evening mission into Sam today.

Sam is moving toward the west-northwest, or 290/7 kt.  A deep-layer
subtropical ridge to the north and northeast of Sam should generally
steer the hurricane west-northwestward to northwestward for the next
several days.  By midweek, an amplifying upper-level trough will 
move off the east coast of the U.S. and dig southward over the 
western Atlantic, which will erode the western extent of the 
steering ridge.  The deep-layer southerly flow ahead of the trough 
should cause Sam to begin recurving, with a somewhat faster 
north-northwestward motion forecast by day 5.  The latest NHC track 
forecast was adjusted a little to the left, or southwest of the 
previous official forecast, mainly at days 4 and 5, but not quite as 
far southwest as the model consensus aids.

The hurricane will likely experience some fluctuations in intensity 
during the next few days.  Guidance, however, indicates that the 
chance of an eyewall replacement cycle during the next 36 hours is 
below climatology.  Sam will remain over warm sea-surface 
temperatures and in a low wind shear environment for the next 3 
days, with less than 10 kt of shear diagnosed by the SHIPS guidance. 
It is possible that Sam's slow forward motion during the next 2 to 3 
days could cause some upwelling of cooler water, but this will 
probably not result in significant weakening.  The official NHC 
intensity forecast lies on the high end of the guidance for the 
first 36-48 h of the forecast period.  Thereafter, the NHC forecast 
is closer to the middle of the guidance envelope.  Some gradual 
weakening is forecast later in the period as southwesterly vertical 
wind shear begins to increase, but Sam is still forecast to remain a 
major hurricane through the 5-day period.

The radii were expanded slightly by 5-10 n mi in the western 
semicircle from the previous advisory based on a 1155 UTC ASCAT-A 
pass.
 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/1500Z 13.9N  50.2W  125 KT 145 MPH
 12H  27/0000Z 14.4N  51.2W  125 KT 145 MPH
 24H  27/1200Z 15.2N  52.4W  120 KT 140 MPH
 36H  28/0000Z 16.0N  53.5W  120 KT 140 MPH
 48H  28/1200Z 16.8N  54.6W  115 KT 130 MPH
 60H  29/0000Z 17.7N  55.7W  115 KT 130 MPH
 72H  29/1200Z 18.6N  57.1W  115 KT 130 MPH
 96H  30/1200Z 21.4N  60.3W  110 KT 125 MPH
120H  01/1200Z 25.6N  63.1W  110 KT 125 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen/Pasch
 

Posted on 26 September 2021 | 9:45 am

Hurricane Sam Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 26 2021


000
FONT13 KNHC 261443
PWSAT3
                                                                    
HURRICANE SAM WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  16                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182021               
1500 UTC SUN SEP 26 2021                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SAM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 
NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 125   
KTS...145 MPH...230 KM/H.                                           
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)
 
VIEQUES PR     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)
 
SAINT CROIX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   2(12)
SAINT MAARTEN  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
SAINT MAARTEN  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
SABA           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   X( 8)
 
ST EUSTATIUS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   1( 9)
ST EUSTATIUS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)
ST EUSTATIUS   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   1( 9)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
BARBUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  11(15)   1(16)
BARBUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)
BARBUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)
 
ANTIGUA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)   1(12)
ANTIGUA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
ANTIGUA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)
 
GUADELOUPE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   X( 9)
 
DOMINICA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)
 
MARTINIQUE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER HAGEN/PASCH                                              
      

Posted on 26 September 2021 | 9:43 am

Summary for Hurricane Sam (AT3/AL182021)

...SAM CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... As of 11:00 AM AST Sun Sep 26 the center of Sam was located near 13.9, -50.2 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 943 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 145 mph.

Posted on 26 September 2021 | 9:42 am

Hurricane Sam Public Advisory Number 16

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 26 2021


000
WTNT33 KNHC 261442
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Sam Advisory Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182021
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 26 2021
 
...SAM CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS A CATEGORY 4
HURRICANE...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 50.2W
ABOUT 905 MI...1455 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sam was located
near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 50.2 West.  Sam is moving toward
the west-northwest near 8 mph.  This general motion is expected to 
continue today, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Monday.  
Then, a northwestward motion is forecast to continue through 
midweek.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Sam is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some fluctuations in intensity are expected
during the next day or so.  Thereafter, some slow weakening is
forecast.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 943 mb (27.85 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Sam are forecast to reach the Lesser
Antilles early this week. These swells could cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen/Pasch
 

Posted on 26 September 2021 | 9:42 am

Hurricane Sam Forecast Advisory Number 16

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 26 2021


000
WTNT23 KNHC 261441
TCMAT3
 
HURRICANE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182021
1500 UTC SUN SEP 26 2021
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N  50.2W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  943 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE  25SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  80SE  50SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE  90SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N  50.2W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N  50.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 14.4N  51.2W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  25SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 15.2N  52.4W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 16.0N  53.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 16.8N  54.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  30SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  45SE  35SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 17.7N  55.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 18.6N  57.1W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  45NW.
34 KT...100NE  95SE  75SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 21.4N  60.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 25.6N  63.1W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N  50.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER HAGEN/PASCH
 
 

Posted on 26 September 2021 | 9:41 am

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


843
ABNT20 KNHC 261145
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Sep 26 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Sam, located about 900 miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward
Islands.

An elongated area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms
associated with the remnants of Peter is located a few hundred
miles southeast of Bermuda. Upper-level winds only appear
marginally conducive for some slow development of this disturbance
over the next couple of days as it moves northeastward at about 10
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa on
Monday. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for
gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form
by midweek while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph over the far eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

A broad area of low pressure could form over the eastern or central
tropical Atlantic early this week, to the west of the tropical wave
that will be moving off the coast of Africa. Thereafter,
environmental conditions could support some development of this
disturbance while it moves westward at 5 to 10 mph through the
middle of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Pasch

Posted on 26 September 2021 | 6:45 am

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