Eleuthera Weather
Average Weather for Eleuthera Bahamas
| Month |
Mean Daily Maximum Temperature F° |
Mean Daily Minimum Temperature F° |
Monthly Rainfall Inches |
Number of Rain Days |
| January | 76 | 65 | 3.4 | 6 |
| February | 79 | 68 | 3.2 | 4 |
| March | 80 | 66 | 2.2 | 3 |
| April | 82 | 69 | .96 | 3 |
| May | 86 | 73 | 4.0 | 5 |
| June | 86 | 76 | 1.2 | 2 |
| July | 89 | 79 | 3.0 | 4 |
| August | 90 | 78 | 5.5 | 7 |
| September | 89 | 74 | 1.3 | 4 |
| October | 88 | 75 | 4.3 | 6 |
| November | 83 | 73 | 5.4 | 8 |
| December | 80 | 68 | 3.1 | 7 |
Eleuthera Tide Tables Tides and Charts
Currently: Intermittent Clouds: 79F
Currently in Governor's Harbour, BS: 79 °F and Intermittent Clouds
9/19/2019 Forecast
High: 83 F Low: 78 F Sun and some clouds; breezy 
9/20/2019 Forecast
High: 85 F Low: 80 F Clouds and sun, a few showers 
Current Weather for Governor's Harbour & Nearby Places
Governor's Harbour Accuweather 25 Day Forecast
Intellicast Atlantic Weather Radar Map - Hi Res Loop
Intellicast Caribbean Weather Radar Map - Hi Res Loop
Melbourne Florida Radar Map
Real Time GOES Imagery - Definitive Weather Satellite Views of the Bahamas and Caribbean:
GOES-East - Regional sector view: Caribbean
GOES-East Image Viewer
NASA's Hurricane Resource Page
Sea Surface Temperatures (expressed in Celcius degrees)
Space, Science & Engineering's Interactive Geostationary Real Time Satellite Images
Eleuthera Hurricane History lists hurricanes affecting Eleuthera dating back to 1871.
Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico
Issued at 800 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019
000
WTNT35 KNHC 191155
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
800 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019
...HURRICANE HUNTERS ON THE WAY TO JERRY...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 53.9W
ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbuda
* Anguilla
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor
the progress of Jerry. Additional watches could be issued later
today.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 53.9 West. Jerry is
moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A west-
northwest motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected over
the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will
be near or north of the northern Leeward Islands Friday and pass
north of Puerto Rico on Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Jerry is forecast to become a hurricane later today, with
little change in strength anticipated on Friday or Saturday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
areas by early Friday.
RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches across the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.
SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are forecast to affect portions
of the northern Leeward Islands by later today. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Blake
Posted on 19 September 2019 | 6:55 am
...HURRICANE HUNTERS ON THE WAY TO JERRY...
As of 8:00 AM AST Thu Sep 19
the center of Jerry was located near 16.4, -53.9
with movement WNW at 16 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 995 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
Posted on 19 September 2019 | 6:55 am
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 11:55:27 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 09:32:06 GMT
Posted on 19 September 2019 | 6:55 am
000
ABNT20 KNHC 191145
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Humberto, located several hundred miles northeast of Bermuda,
and on Tropical Storm Jerry, located several hundred miles east of
the Leeward Islands.
A tropical wave located about 1000 miles west of the Cabo Verde
Islands is producing disorganized cloudiness and showers. Some
development of this system is possible while the system approaches
the Windward Islands this weekend or when it moves across the
eastern Caribbean Sea early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
An elongated area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave
is located just south of the Dominican Republic. Although
upper-level winds are not conducive for significant development,
thunderstorm activity has become more concentrated since yesterday.
Some slight development is still possible before the system begins
to interact with the high terrain of Hispaniola. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the
Dominican Republic and Haiti during the next day or two. The
disturbance is forecast to move slowly northwestward through the
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa in
a few days. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for at least gradual development thereafter while the system moves
westward over the far eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
Posted on 19 September 2019 | 6:45 am
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 19 2019
000
WTNT24 KNHC 190916 CCA
TCMAT4
HURRICANE HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092019
0900 UTC THU SEP 19 2019
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.2N 62.2W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 19 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 80SE 70SW 60NW.
50 KT.......100NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT.......220NE 170SE 160SW 350NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 480SE 900SW 630NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.2N 62.2W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 62.9W
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 37.4N 60.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
50 KT...150NE 110SE 100SW 120NW.
34 KT...230NE 170SE 160SW 300NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 39.9N 58.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 80SE 70SW 60NW.
50 KT...150NE 110SE 100SW 110NW.
34 KT...240NE 170SE 160SW 250NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 41.8N 57.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...150NE 110SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT...250NE 180SE 150SW 200NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 43.2N 53.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...250NE 170SE 150SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 46.3N 36.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...250NE 160SE 150SW 140NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z...ABSORBED BY LOW
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.2N 62.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
Posted on 19 September 2019 | 4:17 am
...HUMBERTO STILL A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE BUT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOON...
As of 5:00 AM AST Thu Sep 19
the center of Humberto was located near 35.2, -62.2
with movement NE at 22 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 952 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.
Posted on 19 September 2019 | 4:14 am
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019
000
WTNT34 KNHC 190914 CCA
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
Hurricane Humberto Advisory Number 27...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
500 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019
...HUMBERTO STILL A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE BUT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
SOON...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.2N 62.2W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM NE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches and warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Humberto was
located near latitude 35.2 North, longitude 62.2 West. Humberto is
moving toward the northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h). This general
motion is expected to continue today, followed by a north-
northeastward motion at a slower forward speed Thursday night
and Friday. A turn toward the east-northeast is expected Friday
night and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Humberto
will continue to move away from Bermuda.
Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Humberto is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. The hurricane should start to weaken today,
and it is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone by Friday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 405
miles (650 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells and dangerous surf generated by Humberto will
continue along the coast of Bermuda through today, and these could
continue to cause coastal flooding.
Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the
southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to
North Carolina during the next couple of days.
These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office
and the Bermuda Weather Service.
STORM SURGE: Storm surge along the coast of Bermuda should subside
today.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Roberts
Posted on 19 September 2019 | 4:14 am
The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019
Posted on 19 September 2019 | 4:03 am
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 08:59:37 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 09:25:02 GMT
Posted on 19 September 2019 | 3:59 am
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019
000
WTNT44 KNHC 190853
TCDAT4
Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
500 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019
Flight-level and surface wind observations reported by Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft exiting Humberto a couple of hours
ago indicated that the maximum sustained winds have increased to 110
kt. However, weakening is expected to commence soon.
Humberto's extratropical transition continues as a high amplitude PV
tongue, noted in the GOES-16 water vapor imagery, and associated dry
air, digs into the backside of the cyclone. The large-scale models,
as well as the FSU Cyclone Phase Evolution forecast, indicate that
the process will be completed in less than 36 hours. Afterward,
gradual weakening is expected until the extratropical low is
absorbed by another larger low pressure system, moving out of
Atlantic Canada, by the end of the forecast period. The NHC
intensity forecast is basically an update of the previous forecast
and is based on a blend of the global models beyond the 36 hour
period.
The initial motion is estimated to be northeastward, or 045/19 kt.
Humberto is forecast to turn north-northeastward as the cyclone
completes its extratropical transition, followed by a turn
back toward the east-northeast within the strong deep-layer
mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC forecast is nudged a little to the
left of the previous advisory between the 36 and 72 hour periods,
and is close to the NOAA HFIP HCCA consensus model.
Key Messages:
1. Storm surge and dangerous breaking waves, while diminishing,
could cause coastal flooding today along the coast of Bermuda.
2. Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the
southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to
North Carolina during the next couple of days, creating life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/0900Z 35.2N 62.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 37.4N 60.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 20/0600Z 39.9N 58.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 20/1800Z 41.8N 57.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 21/0600Z 43.2N 53.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 22/0600Z 46.3N 36.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Roberts
Posted on 19 September 2019 | 3:53 am
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 19 2019
000
FONT14 KNHC 190852
PWSAT4
HURRICANE HUMBERTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092019
0900 UTC THU SEP 19 2019
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HUMBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
35.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
SABLE ISLAND 34 X 22(22) 22(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44)
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
Posted on 19 September 2019 | 3:53 am
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019
000
WTNT45 KNHC 190851
TCDAT5
Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019
A fortuitous 0531 UTC AMSR2 microwave overpass indicated that
Jerry's inner core has significantly become better organized this
morning. The image revealed a nearly enclosed banding eye feature
with the curved band wrapping around the east portion of the
cyclone. Based on the much improved cloud pattern and a blend of
the subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates, the
initial intensity is increased to 60 kt for this advisory.
Jerry is expected to strengthen further in the short term and become
a hurricane later today. Afterward, the statistical-dynamical
intensity models show some moderate northwesterly shear impinging on
the northern half of the cyclone, which should arrest the early
period intensification. Beyond the 48 hour period, a majority of
the large-scale models indicate increasing westerly vertical shear
as Jerry moves northwest of an upper anti-cyclone situated to
the north of Hispaniola. Therefore, a weakening trend is expected
through the remaining portion of the forecast. The NHC forecast is
slightly below the previous advisory after the 48 hour period, but
above the HFIP HCCA and IVCN consensus models, and as well as the
HWRF.
The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 290/14
kt. There are no significant changes to the forecast track
philosophy. The cyclone is forecast to be steered by the
southeasterly flow generated by a subtropical ridge to the northeast
of Jerry through the 48 hour period. Around day 3, Jerry is likely
to turn northwest to north-northwest, in response to a growing
weakness in the aforementioned mid-tropospheric ridge along 70-75W
longitude. The official track forecast is based on a blend of the
various consensus aids.
Key Messages:
1. Jerry is expected to become a hurricane before it moves close to
the northern Leeward Islands Friday. Although the core of Jerry is
currently expected to pass north of the islands, tropical-storm-
force winds and locally heavy rainfall are possible, and tropical
storm watches have been issued for a portion of this area.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/0900Z 16.0N 53.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 16.8N 55.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 20/0600Z 17.8N 57.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 20/1800Z 18.9N 60.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 21/0600Z 20.1N 63.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 22/0600Z 22.9N 68.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 23/0600Z 26.0N 70.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 24/0600Z 29.5N 68.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
$$
Forecaster Roberts
Posted on 19 September 2019 | 3:51 am
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 19 2019
000
FONT15 KNHC 190851
PWSAT5
TROPICAL STORM JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019
0900 UTC THU SEP 19 2019
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10)
SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6)
MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9)
GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) 1(14)
PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12)
SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 12(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18)
SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SABA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
ST EUSTATIUS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
BARBUDA 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 4(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16)
ANTIGUA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
GUADELOUPE 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
AVES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
DOMINICA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
Posted on 19 September 2019 | 3:51 am
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 19 2019
000
WTNT25 KNHC 190850
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019
0900 UTC THU SEP 19 2019
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBUDA
* ANGUILLA
* ST. MAARTEN
* ST. MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF JERRY. ADDITIONAL WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED LATER
TODAY.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 53.2W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 30SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 53.2W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 52.6W
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.8N 55.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.8N 57.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 18.9N 60.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.1N 63.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 22.9N 68.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 26.0N 70.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 29.5N 68.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 53.2W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 19/1200Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
Posted on 19 September 2019 | 3:51 am
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