Eleuthera

Eleuthera Weather

Average Weather for Eleuthera Bahamas

Month Mean Daily Maximum Temperature F° Mean Daily Minimum Temperature F° Monthly Rainfall Inches Number of Rain Days
January76653.46
February79683.24
March80662.23
April8269.963
May86734.05
June86761.22
July89793.04
August90785.57
September89741.34
October88754.36
November83735.48
December80683.17

Eleuthera Tide Tables Tides and Charts

Currently: Cloudy: 82F
Currently in Governor's Harbour, BS: 82 °F and Cloudy

8/28/2016 Forecast
High: 84 F Low: 80 F Showers and a heavier t-storm

8/29/2016 Forecast
High: 85 F Low: 79 F Showers and a heavier t-storm

NOAA Infrared Weather Map of Bahamas
(click to enlarge)

Current Weather for Governor's Harbour & Nearby Places

Governor's Harbour Accuweather 25 Day Forecast

Intellicast Atlantic Weather Radar Map - Hi Res Loop

Intellicast Caribbean Weather Radar Map - Hi Res Loop

Melbourne Florida Radar Map

Real Time GOES Imagery - Caribbean:

GOES East Visible Loop, IR Loop and Water Vapor Loop

NASA's Hurricane Resource Page

Sea Surface Temperatures (expressed in Celcius degrees)

° Celsius    ° Fahrenheit
(Enter Celcius degrees then click the “=” button to convert to Farenheit degrees)

Space, Science & Engineering's Interactive Geostationary Real Time Satellite Images

Eleuthera Hurricane History lists hurricanes affecting Eleuthera dating back to 1871.

NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Depression NINE Graphics

Tropical Depression NINE 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 28 Aug 2016 20:51:08 GMT

Tropical Depression NINE 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 28 Aug 2016 21:09:48 GMT

Posted on 28 August 2016 | 4:20 pm

Tropical Depression EIGHT Graphics

Tropical Depression EIGHT 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 28 Aug 2016 20:34:30 GMT

Tropical Depression EIGHT 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 28 Aug 2016 21:09:14 GMT

Posted on 28 August 2016 | 4:17 pm

Hurricane GASTON Graphics

Hurricane GASTON 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 28 Aug 2016 20:34:12 GMT

Hurricane GASTON 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 28 Aug 2016 21:08:40 GMT

Posted on 28 August 2016 | 4:14 pm

Tropical Depression NINE Forecast Discussion Number 1

Issued at 500 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016


000
WTNT44 KNHC 282055
TCDAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016
500 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the area of
low pressure located in the Florida Straits now has a well-defined
center.  Satellite imagery shows a significant increase in the
convective organization today, and as a result the system is now
classified as a tropical cyclone.  The initial intensity is set to
30 kt based on the highest believable wind data from the aircraft,
which reported a central pressure of 1009 mb.

The depression will be moving through a marginal environment for
intensification during the next day or so, with vertical shear of
15 to 20 kt.  As a result only slow strengthening is expected in
the short term.  Later on, the environment may improve a little as
the shear is forecast to decrease somewhat and become
southwesterly, which should allow for a little more strengthening.
However, there are mixed signals in the model guidance, with the
ECMWF now showing the cyclone dissipating in the Gulf, while the
GFS delays development until 4-5 days.  Much of the tropical
cyclone guidance is more aggressive.  Given this uncertainty, the
NHC intensity forecast is quite conservative and shows the system
peaking at 45 kt, below all the explicit intensity guidance in
consideration of the negative signal from the ECMWF.  Needless to
say, the confidence in the intensity forecast is even lower than
usual for this system.

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 270/09 given the recent
formation of the center.  The cyclone will be steered in the short
range by a mid-level ridge centered over the southeastern United
States.  This ridge will weaken in 2-3 days, which will cause the
cyclone to slow down and turn northward during this time.  Late in
the period a northeastward acceleration is expected ahead of an
approaching mid-latitude trough.  There is reasonable agreement in
the track of the cyclone in the global model guidance, although
there is a fair bit of along-track spread late in the period.  The
NHC forecast is close to a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF through
day 4 and is a little faster than the GFS and GEFS ensemble mean at
day 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/2100Z 23.7N  81.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  29/0600Z 23.9N  83.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  29/1800Z 24.3N  85.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  30/0600Z 24.6N  86.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  30/1800Z 25.1N  87.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  31/1800Z 26.8N  87.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  01/1800Z 29.0N  84.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  02/1800Z 31.0N  80.0W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan


Posted on 28 August 2016 | 3:56 pm

Tropical Depression NINE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 28 2016


000
FONT14 KNHC 282050
PWSAT4
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1        
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016               
2100 UTC SUN AUG 28 2016                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR    
LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ELIZABETH CTY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
ROCKY MT NC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
FAYETTEVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
CHARLOTTE NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
CHERRY PT NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
NEW RIVER NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
 
SURF CITY NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)
 
BALD HEAD ISL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)
 
FLORENCE SC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)
 
COLUMBIA SC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
 
LITTLE RIVER   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)
 
GEORGETOWN SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)
 
BEAUFORT MCAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)
 
ATLANTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
AUGUSTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)
 
SAVANNAH GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   9(13)
 
KINGS BAY GA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  11(17)
KINGS BAY GA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
WAYCROSS GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   9(16)
WAYCROSS GA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
MAYPORT NS FL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  12(18)
MAYPORT NS FL  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
JACKSONVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  11(18)
JACKSONVILLE   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
GAINESVILLE FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)  11(21)
GAINESVILLE FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   9(15)
 
THE VILLAGES   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   7( 9)   7(16)
 
ORLANDO FL     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   7(14)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   6(11)
 
PATRICK AFB    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   6(11)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   5( 9)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)
 
FT LAUDERDALE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
 
MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
 
MARATHON FL    34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)
 
NAPLES FL      34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   4( 8)   2(10)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   5( 9)   2(11)
 
VENICE FL      34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   7(12)   3(15)
 
TAMPA FL       34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   4( 5)   8(13)   5(18)
TAMPA FL       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   3( 4)  11(15)   7(22)
CEDAR KEY FL   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)   7(19)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  10(14)   7(21)
ST MARKS FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   7( 8)  13(21)   5(26)
APALACHICOLA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   8(11)  15(26)   4(30)
GFMX 290N 850W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)
GFMX 290N 850W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)  12(20)   4(24)
PANAMA CITY FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
COLUMBUS GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)
 
MONTGOMERY AL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)
 
WHITING FLD FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   8(13)   2(15)
WHITING FLD FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
PENSACOLA FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   8(14)   2(16)
PENSACOLA FL   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)  13(17)  13(30)   3(33)
GFMX 290N 870W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)
GFMX 290N 870W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)
 
MOBILE AL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   5(10)   2(12)
 
GULFPORT MS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   4( 9)   2(11)
 
STENNIS MS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)   2(10)
 
BURAS LA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   5(13)   2(15)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)  14(19)   7(26)   1(27)
GFMX 280N 890W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)
GFMX 280N 890W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   2(10)   1(11)
 
BATON ROUGE LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
 
MORGAN CITY LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)
 
LAFAYETTE LA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
NEW IBERIA LA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
 
GFMX 280N 930W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
HAVANA         34  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BRENNAN                                                  

Posted on 28 August 2016 | 3:51 pm

Summary for Tropical Depression NINE (AT4/AL092016)

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO... As of 5:00 PM EDT Sun Aug 28 the center of NINE was located near 23.7, -81.7 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Posted on 28 August 2016 | 3:50 pm

Tropical Depression NINE Public Advisory Number 1

Issued at 500 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016


000
WTNT34 KNHC 282050
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016
500 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS...
...EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.7N 81.7W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM NE OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM S OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine
was located by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 23.7
North, longitude 81.7 West.  The depression is moving toward the
west near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue
through tonight.  On the forecast track, the depression will be
moving away from the Florida Keys and into the Gulf of Mexico
overnight.  A turn toward the west-northwest and a decrease in
forward speed are expected on Monday followed by a turn toward the
northwest on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
depression is forecast to become a tropical storm on Monday.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft was 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  The depression is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 1 to 4 inches over the southern half of the Florida
peninsula and the Florida Keys through Wednesday.  Isolated maximum
amounts of 6 inches are possible over coastal areas of southern
Florida and the Keys.  This rainfall may cause flooding and flash
flooding.

WIND:  Gusts to tropical storm force are possible in a few squalls
in the lower Florida Keys through tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan


Posted on 28 August 2016 | 3:50 pm

Tropical Depression NINE Forecast Advisory Number 1

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 28 2016


000
WTNT24 KNHC 282046
TCMAT4
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016
2100 UTC SUN AUG 28 2016
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N  81.7W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N  81.7W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.7N  81.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 23.9N  83.6W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 24.3N  85.4W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 24.6N  86.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 25.1N  87.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 26.8N  87.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 29.0N  84.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 31.0N  80.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.7N  81.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
 

Posted on 28 August 2016 | 3:47 pm

Tropical Depression EIGHT Forecast Discussion Number 2

Issued at 500 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016


000
WTNT43 KNHC 282036
TCDAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082016
500 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

The low-level center of the depression is now exposed, with the deep
convection diminishing and displaced to the northwest of the center
due to about 15 to 20 kt of southeasterly shear.  Data from an Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft suggest that the intensity
remains 30 kt based on the highest believable SFMR winds and peak
flight-level winds of 32 kt.

Given the current satellite presentation and an environment that is
only expected to be marginally conducive for intensification, only
modest strengthening is shown in the official forecast, with the
depression expected to become a tropical storm in the next day or
two.  After that time the shear should increase as the system
accelerates northeastward, and the global models show the cyclone
being absorbed by a front in about 4 days.  The NHC intensity
forecast is close to the intensity consensus through 48 hours and a
little below it at 72 hours.

The initial motion estimate is 280/08.  While the synoptic reasoning
has not changed, the sheared state of the cyclone could lead to some
erratic motion if it remains a shallow system. Assuming deep
convection returns, the cyclone is expected to gradually recurve
during the next 48 to 72 hours, with a slow northwestward motion
expected in 24 to 48 hours, bringing the center just offshore of the
Outer Banks of North Carolina.  Given the uncertainty in the
intensity forecast and the timing of the approach to the coast, a
tropical storm watch is not being issued at this time, but one may
be required later tonight.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/2100Z 31.8N  70.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  29/0600Z 32.2N  72.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  29/1800Z 33.0N  73.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  30/0600Z 33.7N  74.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  30/1800Z 34.3N  75.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  31/1800Z 36.8N  72.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan


Posted on 28 August 2016 | 3:37 pm

Tropical Depression EIGHT Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 28 2016


000
FONT13 KNHC 282036
PWSAT3
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2       
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082016               
2100 UTC SUN AUG 28 2016                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS LOCATED NEAR   
LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLIP NY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NYC JFK AIRPRT 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NYC CNTRL PARK 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NEWARK NJ      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
TRENTON NJ     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NWS EARLE NJ   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ALLENTOWN PA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
PHILADELPHIA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
BALTIMORE MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
DOVER DE       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ANNAPOLIS MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
WASHINGTON DC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CAPE HENLOPEN  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   6( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   7( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
PAX RIVER NAS  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
WALLOPS CDA    34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   7( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
RICHMOND VA    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
NORFOLK NAS    34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   7(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   7(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
OCEANA NAS VA  34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   9(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
ELIZABETH CTY  34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   5( 9)   9(18)   X(18)   X(18)
ELIZABETH CTY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ROCKY MT NC    34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   3( 3)  11(14)  10(24)  12(36)   X(36)   X(36)
CAPE HATTERAS  50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
FAYETTEVILLE   34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
CHERRY PT NC   34  X   1( 1)   9(10)   7(17)   5(22)   X(22)   X(22)
CHERRY PT NC   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NEW RIVER NC   34  X   3( 3)  10(13)  11(24)   5(29)   X(29)   X(29)
NEW RIVER NC   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   2( 2)  10(12)   9(21)   5(26)   X(26)   X(26)
MOREHEAD CITY  50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SURF CITY NC   34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   5(11)   3(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)   3(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
BALD HEAD ISL  34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
FLORENCE SC    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
LITTLE RIVER   34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GEORGETOWN SC  34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BRENNAN                                                  

Posted on 28 August 2016 | 3:36 pm

Hurricane GASTON Forecast Discussion Number 25

Issued at 500 PM AST SUN AUG 28 2016


000
WTNT42 KNHC 282034
TCDAT2

HURRICANE GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016
500 PM AST SUN AUG 28 2016

The 15 n mi diameter eye has become more distinct on visible
satellite images today, and enhanced IR images show a cooling of the
cloud tops surrounding the eye.  These features indicate
strengthening, and the current intensity is increased to 100 kt in
agreement with the subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, as
well as objective ADT numbers from UW-CIMSS.  Upper-level outflow is
well-established both to the west and the east of the hurricane.
Based on a consensus of the intensity models, not much additional
strengthening is anticipated.  When Gaston moves to a little higher
latitude, westerly shear on the system should increase, and steady
weakening is expected to commence in about 48 hours.

Gaston continues to crawl northwestward while being partially
blocked by a narrow mid-level subtropical ridge.  The hurricane is
forecast to work its way through the ridge over the next day or so.
By Tuesday, an east-northeastward motion with gradual acceleration
is likely as the system begins to feel the effect of the
mid-latitude westerlies.  The official forecast track is shifted a
little southward late in the forecast period, in line with the
latest global model guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/2100Z 30.8N  55.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  29/0600Z 31.0N  55.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  29/1800Z 31.4N  55.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  30/0600Z 32.0N  54.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  30/1800Z 32.8N  52.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  31/1800Z 34.9N  47.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  01/1800Z 37.5N  40.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  02/1800Z 37.5N  33.5W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Posted on 28 August 2016 | 3:35 pm

Hurricane GASTON Wind Speed Probabilities Number 25

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 28 2016


000
FONT12 KNHC 282034
PWSAT2
                                                                    
HURRICANE GASTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  25                
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016               
2100 UTC SUN AUG 28 2016                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GASTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
30.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H.                                       
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
SANTA CRUZ AZO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  16(19)
SANTA CRUZ AZO 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
SANTA CRUZ AZO 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
PONTA DELGADA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    

Posted on 28 August 2016 | 3:35 pm

Summary for Tropical Depression EIGHT (AT3/AL082016)

...DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD... As of 5:00 PM EDT Sun Aug 28 the center of EIGHT was located near 31.8, -70.9 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Posted on 28 August 2016 | 3:34 pm

Tropical Depression EIGHT Public Advisory Number 2

Issued at 500 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016


000
WTNT33 KNHC 282033
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082016
500 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

...DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.8N 70.9W
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 360 MI...575 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the Outer Banks of North Carolina should monitor
the progress of the depression.  A tropical storm watch may be
required for part of this area tonight.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight
was located near latitude 31.8 North, longitude 70.9 West.  A turn
toward the west-northwest is expected tonight, followed by a turn
toward the northwest and a decrease in forward speed on Monday and
a slow northwestward motion on Tuesday.  On the forecast track, the
center of the cyclone will pass offshore of the North Carolina Outer
Banks late Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is possible during the next couple of days, and
the depression could become a tropical storm on Monday.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft was 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan


Posted on 28 August 2016 | 3:34 pm

Tropical Depression EIGHT Forecast Advisory Number 2

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 28 2016


000
WTNT23 KNHC 282032
TCMAT3
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082016
2100 UTC SUN AUG 28 2016
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
INTERESTS ALONG THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR PART OF THIS AREA TONIGHT.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N  70.9W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N  70.9W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.6N  70.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 32.2N  72.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 33.0N  73.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 33.7N  74.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 34.3N  75.4W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 36.8N  72.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  40SW  20NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.8N  70.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
 

Posted on 28 August 2016 | 3:33 pm

Hurricane GASTON Public Advisory Number 25

Issued at 500 PM AST SUN AUG 28 2016


000
WTNT32 KNHC 282031
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GASTON ADVISORY NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016
500 PM AST SUN AUG 28 2016

...GASTON STRENGTHENS INTO THE FIRST MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE
SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.8N 55.1W
ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Gaston was located
near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 55.1 West. Gaston is moving
toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and a turn toward the
north is expected on Monday, followed by a turn toward the northeast
and then east-northeast with some increase in forward speed on
Tuesday.

Satellite images indicate that the maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts.  Gaston is a
category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Posted on 28 August 2016 | 3:32 pm

Summary for Hurricane GASTON (AT2/AL072016)

...GASTON STRENGTHENS INTO THE FIRST MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE SEASON... As of 5:00 PM AST Sun Aug 28 the center of GASTON was located near 30.8, -55.1 with movement NW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 962 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.

Posted on 28 August 2016 | 3:32 pm

Hurricane GASTON Forecast Advisory Number 25

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 28 2016


000
WTNT22 KNHC 282031
TCMAT2
 
HURRICANE GASTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016
2100 UTC SUN AUG 28 2016
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N  55.1W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  962 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE  50SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N  55.1W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.6N  55.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 31.0N  55.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 31.4N  55.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE  80SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 32.0N  54.4W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE  90SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 32.8N  52.6W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 34.9N  47.7W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  70SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 150SE 120SW 110NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 37.5N  40.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 37.5N  33.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.8N  55.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 

Posted on 28 August 2016 | 3:32 pm

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 281732
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gaston, located about 600 miles east of Bermuda, and on newly
formed Tropical Depression Eight, located about 400 miles southeast
of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.

Shower and thunderstorm activity has begun to increase near and to
the east of a weak area of low pressure located just south of the
lower Florida Keys. The low is expected to move westward into the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday, where environmental
conditions are expected to become more conducive for development,
and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next few
days. This system is then expected to move slowly northward and
northeastward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico later this week.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely
to continue over portions of the northwestern Bahamas, central and
western Cuba, the Florida Keys and portions of southern Florida
through Monday. Interests elsewhere in Florida and the eastern Gulf
of Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of this
disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

A weak area of low pressure located near the upper Texas coast is
producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity over the
northwestern Gulf of Mexico and adjacent coastal areas of
southwestern Louisiana and southeastern Texas. Surface pressures
remain high in the area and the system's proximity to land is
expected to limit significant development while it moves slowly
southwestward during the next couple of days. For additional
information on the rainfall associated with this system, please see
products from your local National Weather Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

A tropical wave is expected to move offshore of the west coast of
Africa on Tuesday. Conditions are expected to be favorable for
development of this system later this week while it moves westward
at 15 to 20 mph over the tropical eastern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Eight are issued under WMO
header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Eight are issued under
WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

Posted on 28 August 2016 | 12:32 pm

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